The best forecasters exhibit the following characteristics:
- They are open-minded, reflective, and intellectually curious.
- They acknowledge what they do not know.
- They gather information from a wide variety of sources and question the validity of each source.
- They enjoy pondering a range of diverse views, and they update their conclusions as facts change.
- They treat beliefs as testable hypotheses rather than hard truths.
In my view, the same might be said about the best leaders. They often distinguish themselves by how they think, not what they know.